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Whether we’re journalists and consultants, or someone running a business, a lot of what we do is reflected in this quote from the philosopher Plato: “Those who tell the stories rule society.”

We rely on the stories we tell our friends, family, customers, and ourselves to give context to the world around us. No matter how hard we try, our lizard brain is wired for attraction to Plato’s truth. Good Beer Hunting can throw all the statistical analysis in the world at you, but there’s still strength in an anecdote, and sometimes it can be just as powerful.

This is what we’ve strived for over the first year of Sightlines Premium—a heavy dose of data to build a truthful foundation upon which we can share real-world examples that serve not just as anecdotes, but concrete illustrations of that truth.

We are objective in our look at the beverage alcohol industry. While other outlets may shun or tease hard seltzers and FMBs, we’ve put them in their full context to explain why we all need to pay attention to the way they’re shifting consumer decision making. We take survey data one step further to explain how it can be useful to you and your company.

We’ve found this mix to be effective, and in 2021 we’ll be offering a higher frequency of insights, and new video conversations that further explore the pressing themes of the week.

But the world around us—in our communities and across the country—aren’t always as easy to reach with this level of understanding. The past year offered a threshold of belief for some, a constant state of denial for others, and an endless optimism for capitalism while facing a deadly and economically-debilitating pandemic.

Over and over, some version of thinking built around the idea of “I’m the exception” took hold. COVID-19’s social spread was partially built through this thought process. The coronavirus didn’t seem real for many (until it was) because a loved one or themselves dealt with it. And during a year of lockdown where we spent more time at home and away from our favorite places and people, it’s been easier to feel like individual life experiences pave the way for how to handle all the “new normals” people have been talking about for months on end.

Going back to our launch in January 2019, this is the chasm we’ve worked to cross, using data-driven analysis that earned Bryan Roth awards in journalism and a unique understanding of strategy and innovation that Michael Kiser has used to help launch new beer, seltzer, coffee, and spirits brands.

It sounds like a marketing line, but it’s the truth: You won’t find this combination of data, insight, and clear recommendation born from real-world experience anywhere else. In March, it was explaining some key reasons hard seltzer had become a phenomenon—there’s plenty to explore from non-alcoholic water that tell us why. Back in April, as COVID-19 was disrupting sales channels and purchase behaviors, we were modeling ways to track spread and its relation to off-premise sales jumps. And over the summer we showed how many of these factors came together to drive purchasing decisions around flavor, package, ABV, and emerging sales categories. If you were making decisions, this was the analysis many of you relied on.

For some of you, we were able to collaborate on your specific opportunities, helping optimize your portfolios and approach to the market as you expanded at home and abroad.

In the coming year, we’ll continue these deep dives, giving context for the ways COVID will shift sales and consumer preferences (people still aren’t talking about fruit beers enough), and plenty of ideas of how to approach your portfolio and sales strategies.

As we’ve said before, things are going to continue to be tough for traditional beer, as drinkers shift more toward spirits and FMBs.

“In the last generation, we saw the idea of a ‘beer drinker’ or a ‘whisky person’ come into question as drinkers became more modal across categories than ever before,” says Michael Kiser, Good Beer Hunting’s founder and director. “And while that trend continues, beer seems to be losing its place in that diversifying consideration set. As a category, we’ve long worked to stop that bleeding with limited success. But smarter companies have worked ahead of the problem and evolved their portfolios, revamped sales channels, and reframed the beer opportunity in exciting ways.”

All this remains our goal for 2021, in an effort to give you the data and background necessary to make choices that will help your company stay strong on what will hopefully be the tail-end of the pandemic. What you do now to prepare can set you up for success.

Data isn’t a tyranny. It’s a truth serum. Many producers, especially small ones, are as much data-driven as they are gut-instinct. And that’s where this all comes together.

“So if you’re going to go off-script and hop the curb on a new opportunity, or hunker down and try to improve your position, you shouldn’t be relying on conventional wisdom or accepted narratives that are so often rooted in hopes and optimism of endless consumer desire,” says Kiser. “You should be taking a hard look at the truth of the moment, using data, insight, and strategy. Then make an honest decision about what aspects of the challenge you’re truly prepared to address. That’s how decision-makers determine exactly what decision they’re making.”

This article is part of the Sightlines Premium channel. This article is free, but only subscribers have access to the full content linked and referenced in this piece, along with the community discussion on Slack.

Words by Bryan Roth