Chain store sales numbers show that 2020 New Year's resolutions were more about calories than ABV, as hard seltzer increased volumes during what was being billed as a turning point for the popularity of Dry January in the U.S.
Non-alcoholic beer sales saw an increase last month in grocery, chain, and liquor stores tracked by IRI, a market research firm, but those overall volumes were only about .4% of total beer sold. Brands like Michelob Ultra, White Claw, and Truly saw significant increases in January when compared to last year, with the two hard seltzer companies counting for almost 80% of growth in IRI-tracked, total beer volume.
In addition to those brands, Busch Light, Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing, and Twisted Tea alcoholic tea products also made big jumps when comparing the start of 2019 to 2020. Natural Light Naturdays, which wasn’t on the market last January, was one of the most popular brands in the month this time around. It sold about 11,500 barrels in chain stores.
Despite thorough media coverage of “Dry January” and the sales potential of non-alcoholic beer, data from multiple tiers of the alcohol industry shows January 2020 was not significantly different from past Januarys. In fact, January 2020 beer sales were up compared to recent years, assuaging concerns that this year’s Dry January resolutions would put a dent in sales.
The lesson: drinkers still wanted to consume alcohol as much as ever, but to start the year, there was perhaps greater concern for their waistlines.
Sales to retailers (STR) case volume—the amount of beer wholesalers move to retail accounts—was up slightly in the first 16 days of January 2020 compared to the first 16 days of 2019, according to data provided by the National Beer Wholesalers Association in partnership with Fintech, a market research company. Those early January 2020 STRs also outpaced 2018 and 2017 numbers by roughly 3 and 6 million cases, respectively.
The upward trend continued at retail, where beer sales in grocery, convenience, and other outlets tracked by market research firm IRI were up 3.3% this January compared to January 2019, and were higher than any year since 2015. Sales of IRI-defined craft brands were flat overall this January compared to last year.
January remains a generally slow month for alcohol sales, but that’s been true for years before Dry January hit the national consciousness. It’s annually among the bottom four months for beer sales, joining February, November, and December. Whether because of bad weather or post-holiday spending dips, Americans have traditionally purchased less alcohol in January compared to other winter months. Luckily for the beer industry, the Super Bowl creates an annual jolt in early February.
Much was made of Dry January and its potentially disastrous effects on alcohol sales. According to a YouGov poll conducted at the end of 2018, one in five Americans planned to participate in Dry January in 2019. But the same thing happened then as it did now: IRI-tracked beer sales actually increased 8% in January 2019 compared to 2018. And though January has historically been a slow month, beer sales have risen each successive January since 2017.
Despite that reality, the media can’t resist publishing Dry January stories, especially those told from an experiential, first-person perspective. Most personal essays depend on transformation, on the author becoming a different, wiser version of who they used to be. Arriving at this depth of insight normally takes time and reflection, or the sort of destabilizing, cataclysmic event that comes along once in a lifetime. Dry January, on the other hand, is an accessible journey that promises conversion and newfound wisdom on a schedule that neatly slots into online editorial calendars.
These narratives often reflect the perspectives of people who, by virtue of working in the beverage alcohol industry, may consume more than average Americans. Any change to that behavior has the potential to show a dramatic impact, and often presents a version of alcohol use that doesn’t reflect how most Americans drink.
According to a 2018 survey conducted by a division of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 44.7% of Americans hadn’t consumed any alcohol in the past month. Even among drinkers, knocking back two or three beers a night is rare: 78% of American men and 90% of American women report drinking seven or fewer drinks in a typical week, per the 2015 National Alcohol Survey. Since World War II, Gallup polling has shown that about two-thirds of Americans consume some form of alcohol.
Beer sales data indicates that pledges to participate in Dry January are like any other New Year’s resolutions: they rarely stick, even for a month. A commonly cited statistic says 80% of people fail to achieve their New Year’s resolutions, and the third week of January seems to be the usual stumbling point.
Notably, Dry January did have an effect on non-alcoholic beer—mostly in terms of a boost for Heineken 0.0. IRI sales data shows non-alcoholic beer sales were up 26% this January versus January 2019, though almost all of that growth was attributable to newcomer Heineken 0.0.
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NAB represents a small fraction of the overall beer market, holding just .37% of overall IRI-tracked sales. That annual total was on par with January 2020’s tally of .4%.
Almost all in-store growth for NAB this past year came from that single, deep-pocketed brand: Heineken 0.0, which literally gave away its product for free as part of a “Dry January” marketing effort. Though newer NAB brands including Athletic, Surreal, and WellBeing have had success diversifying the category, it remains a small sliver of the overall beer market. At least two of those upstart brands, though, did see a jump in consumer interest in January: Athletic reports its ecommerce sales shot up 590% year over year in January, and Surreal says its ecommerce sales were up 450% in January 2020 compared to January 2019.
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The public’s curiosity about non-alcoholic beers doesn’t appear to have spiked this January, though. Google searches for non-alcoholic beer increased slightly in January 2020, but Bart Watson, chief economist for the Brewers Association, tweeted that this is evidence that the category is growing but won’t “be huge any time soon.”
“We just don’t get enough requests for non-alcoholic beer,” says Matty O’Reilly, CEO of Minneapolis-based Republic Hospitality Group, which owns bars and restaurants including Republic and The Foxtrot Burger Spot. With the low demand for these beers, he says, keeping inventory fresh is also difficult. Overall, O’Reilly says this January was no different from years past in terms of alcohol sales across his bars and restaurants, where sales of alcohol increased proportionally to overall sales.
“For us, January is January,” he says. “I don’t think the number of resolutions or people choosing not to drink in January has changed. Resolutions and things that interfere with the frequency of people going out exist and have for decades and will for decades.”
National sales numbers support his observation, and should provide some comfort to nervous brewers, distributors, and retailers who fear Dry January’s effects. Despite the proliferation of non-alcoholic beer options and media attention on Dry January, a larger truth continues to hold: resolutions are tough to keep.
Words by Kate Bernot