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COVID-19 has changed much about the beer industry, from distribution to what sells in the market. But after several months of pantry loading, then pantry maintenance, and now shoppers easing into a new normal of buying behavior, data and anecdotes show that even with so much disruption, what’s selling hasn’t changed anywhere as drastically for brewers large or small.
The more things change around us, the more they stay the same inside fridges. And based on what’s happened so far, it suggests that the coronavirus hasn’t reset brand portfolios to focus on traditional styles or simpler recipes. Flagship brands from national breweries are performing better than recent years, but COVID-19 doesn’t push things to a new paradigm of flagship revival like some had assumed.
Instead, producers are doubling-down on what people know them for—itself a modern context of the “flagship.” If you’re known for a ubiquitous Pale Ale—you’re selling a lot of that. And if you’re known for your Double IPAs, you’re probably seeing sales there too.
At a time when breweries are fighting for their lives, they’re not turning to Milds or Light Lagers to save them. They’re cranking out modern IPAs, flavored Stouts, and Sours to cast their widest net possible—the things that sold well before the crisis. Rather than retreat to what made beer “beer” decades ago, a healthcare and financial crisis has—in a way—amplified what was already happening.
Armed with this insight, it may be wise for small brewers to avoid the narrative of “everyone’s drinking lagers and flagships now” and instead focus on making your existing fan favorites—whatever style—accessible, discoverable, and affordable. Shifting your portfolio to Light Lagers isn’t going to matter if you can’t be found on Drizly, in your local grocery chain, or on social media advertising easy and safe pick-up and delivery.“
Now isn’t the time for people to upend their portfolios because they see Miller Lite putting up Fourth of July numbers,” says GBH’s founder, Michael Kiser. “The struggles right now for small brewers aren’t about preferences and beer styles—it’s structural. Your customers need to quickly re-learn how to buy and drink your beer, and you’re the one that can make that successful by being more visible and convenient than ever.”
For example, Samuel Adams' Boston Lager has seen a significant increase in IRI-tracked sales volume for the first time in years, outpacing last year by a bit over 7% in grocery, convenience, liquor, and other chain stores. But the brewery's New England IPA is up about 40%, and added 25,281 case equivalents mid-January to mid-March compared to 2019. Boston Lager added 34,511.
Beer styles can be more resilient than specific brands, and in the case of Sam Adams’ NE IPA, convenience and affordability at a time of stress are a boon to an already thriving brand.
In IRI-tracked sales, IPA is still #1 with a bullet. From mid-January to mid-April (representing the three full months of COVID present in the U.S.), the combined style categories of Pale Ale (#2), Wheat (#3), and Seasonal (#4) barely sold more than IPA alone. IPA also showed the largest percentage growth and raw volume growth of any style compared to the year before.
Granted, these figures represent the IRI-defined "craft" set of IPA, which only includes distributed beer in convenience, grocery, liquor, and other chain stores. But even for a 1,000-barrel brewery like Prison City Brewery in Auburn, New York, it's been business as usual.
Known for its Mass Riot New England-style IPA, the brewery has gone from selling $14, 32oz crowlers from its brewpub taproom to using mobile canning for four-packs of 16oz cans for $18. When Prison City released a batch on April 30, it sold 28 cases in two hours despite a limit of just two four-packs per person. Meanwhile, its Copper John English Bitter sold two. Other one-off hazy IPAs sell out in a day or two, while Pastry Stouts and mixed-fermentation sours also outpace traditional styles. "In short, New England-hazy beers continue to reign supreme here," says co-owner Marc Schulz.
"One beer we do see some success with is our Light Lager, 'Crispy Boys.' But, it still moves at a snail's pace compared to our hazy, hoppy offerings," he adds. A mango-infused version of Mass Riot is coming this week. “That'll be gone in a few hours as well.”
Downtime in taprooms and lower volumes of production for brewers have given the opportunity for many to adjust brewing schedules to allow for more time-intensive beers, whether Lager, Imperial (and Pastry) Stout, or barrel-aged projects. But a flood of Lagers that arrive on store shelves because breweries had the time to dedicate to them doesn't mean a grand shift has happened with consumer interest. These are supply fluctuations, not demand-driven.
Boise, Idaho's Barbarian Brewing may be offering a Maibock, Wee Heavy, and Czech Pilsner, but those are outnumbered by a Butterfinger Ice Cream Ale, Cinnamon Toast Crunch Stout, "Triple Hazy" IPA, Raspberry Sour Porter, and more unique takes on beer that has endeared the company to locals.
"Every brewer wants there to be a catalyst that turns beer consumption to classic styles because that's what we all really want to make," says Rob Landerman, co-founder and president of Boise's Woodland Empire Ale Craft. "Unfortunately, no, COVID-19 is not that catalyst. We are still seeing the same demand for the modern, sweeter, stuff. Maybe more."
According to at least one take, Double IPA "is still king" during COVID-19. California’s HenHouse Brewing is moving 24-packs of DIPA. Pennsylvania’s Four Points Brewing is reportedly selling twice as much as normal times. Across the country, New Belgium’s 9% DIPA, Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA, has nearly doubled its volume to start 2020 vs. 2019. Americans were already insatiable for hop-forward beers before this pandemic, and it’s not changing.
“I don't see styles changing right now,” says Adam Robbings, co-founder and brewmaster at Seattle’s Reuben's Brews. His 10% ABV Triple Crush “triple Hazy IPA” sold out 100 cases in 45 minutes last week. “Trends are accelerating, possibly, but styles aren't changing. Lagers are popular, Hazy IPAs are popular.”
This isn’t to say that it’s a wasted effort to explore styles and brands beyond IPA or other hop-forward examples, but it does give extra weight to the idea that at a time when people are looking for aspects of normalcy in their lives, longtime brands like Sam Adams or Sierra Nevada aren’t the only stand-in for “trust.” People are buying what they know—even if that’s local—and also easy-to-understand beers, whether that’s an IPA or fruited Sour.
A boxed Dark Mild from a brewery regarded for its Dark Milds makes sense. One from a brewery with a reputation built on Hazy IPAs does not.
In many cases, what was already creating excitement for breweries has kept going during COVID-19. In chain distribution, Rahr & Sons Brewing has seen 62% growth from a mango-chile beer, Paleta de Mango. Its Adiós Pantalones, a Mexican Lager made with lemon, lime, and sea salt, is also growing in IRI channels. Lone Pine Brewing Company, dubbed the "fastest-growing brewery in the country" in 2018 by the Brewers Association, is still being led by its Brightside IPA, Oh-J DIPA, and Portland Pale Ale. Meanwhile, Smuttynose Brewing Co., which has long had its Old Brown Dog Brown Ale as a leading brand, is still relying on it as much as ever—its shown 12% growth in IRI-tracked stores.
Success with “traditional” styles now or in the near future seems to be brewery-specific. Or, it’s flavored takes on older styles.
In North Carolina, Winston-Salem's Wise Man Brewing has started an ongoing "Social Distancing Series," a collection of one-offs and variants of popular beers that so far has included fruited Kettle Sours, a Cream Ale with lime, an Irish Stout with coconut, and a strawberry-banana Hefeweizen.
And Chris Tkach, founder and head brewer at Malden, Massachusetts' Idle Hands Craft Ales, has his own theory. As his IPAs continue to lead his portfolio during COVID-19, he notes that mixed-fermentation, one-off Kettle Sours, and high-ABV specialty releases have shown growth compared to pre-COVID levels when these beers would be available on draft as well as packaged. He believes that because drinkers can't get those beers at his taproom or a bar, they've shifted their appreciation to those beers for at-home drinking.
In a lot of ways, consistency has become pivotal. In the early stages go the pandemic, sales of long-tenured and widely available brands exploded. Distributors started looking for what they could rely on to stock shelves, and even that has carried over into strategies for breweries of all sizes. If it ain't broke, after all.
At Woodland Empire, the brewery's rotating IPA series is taking a fruit-forward turn for upcoming releases after a strawberry creamsicle IPA made with lactose and strawberries sold out fast. A Helles Lager with tangerine, key lime, and cranberry also flew. So, Landerman shifted upcoming batches to reflect the passion shown for fruited beers—something seen nationwide.
"Traditional beer demand has remained on the periphery, while demand for the other stuff is, I would say, the same ratio," Landerman says. "Just turned up to 11."
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