With Labor Day over and fall officially in swing with Pumpkin Beers galore, U.S. drinkers are set to repeat another annual trend: slowing down their overall beer consumption. Summer always represents a beer-drinking peak, while fall sees declines until the end-of-year holidays.
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But that doesn’t mean everything is going downward for beer. In the immediate timeframe since this regular slowdown began at the start of September, there are still signs of life. Craft beer sales tracked by IRI, a market research firm that compiles scan data from grocery, convenience, and other chain stores, showed volume of packaged beer just above flat for the first two weeks of September 2019 vs. the same timeframe last year. This includes brands like Blue Moon Belgian White (+4.5%), Lagunitas IPA (+2.3%), and Founders All Day IPA (+1.3%), which don’t fall under the definition of “craft beer” as decided by the Brewers Association trade organization.
As the leaves change color and attention shifts toward Oktoberfest Seasonals and Stouts, here are some brands that have set themselves up—right now, at least—for a climb in the fall.
According to the Beer Institute, the volume of beer imported into the U.S. increased by 5.1% in July, the most recent data available and the fifth consecutive month of import growth. Keeping with trends, Mexican imports were up 10% that month, and looking at how things have started in September, 2019 is going to be a hell of a year for leading brands.
Especial (+15.5%) and Negra (+7.9%) were both up for Modelo in the month's first two weeks, while Premier (+18%) and Familiar (+10%) led for Corona. The latter two are of particular interest, given Constellation Brands’ move this summer to discount 12-pack cans of Corona Extra, Corona Light, and Corona Premier to help increase sales. Extra has been treading water for some time, including a drop of 1.3% in IRI volume sales in the most recent 52-week period that ended Sept. 8. That means that, even when counting the summer—the biggest sales period of the year—Corona’s flagship brand can’t muster growth. Light (-15%) has fared worse in that year-long period, and neither has had success to start September.
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All that puts extra pressure on Premier and Familiar as new lead horses. Neither can match the sheer volume moved by Extra (they sell about 11–13% of Extra’s IRI volume), but both have helped stanch some of the bleeding of the previously untouchable Corona. Modelo Especial, meanwhile, is on pace to be the top-selling beer in California, and has outsold Corona Extra by about 650,000 barrels year-to-date through mid-September.
Is there any American brand capable of matching that kind of success?
Your answer may not go much further than Kona Brewing Company.
If there were a reason for Anheuser-Busch InBev to feel bad about passing on its exclusive window to buy Kona’s parent company, Craft Brew Alliance (CBA), the continued success of the Hawaii-focused brewery and brand could be it. Tracking years of growth across the mainland, the “Kona Plus” strategy continues to pay off for CBA.
In the first half of September, Kona’s Big Wave Golden Ale (+66%), Longboard Island Lager (+64%), and Hanalei Island IPA (+62%) were showing strong volume gains in IRI chain stores vs. 2018, with the entire Kona portfolio up 66%. To put that in perspective, Big Wave sold as much volume from Sept. 1–15 as Goose Island IPA, Island Lager sold almost as much as the entire Harpoon Brewing Company portfolio in chain stores, and Hanalei Island IPA was stronger than Samuel Adams Rebel IPA. In those two weeks, Kona sold a little more than Deschutes Brewery and Stone Brewing combined.
While you can’t attribute that kind of success solely to advertising, Craft Brew Alliance has used national ads in 2019 to promote Kona, which straddles the line between an American brand and the sensibility of imports like Corona. The Mexican brand may tell consumers to "find your beach," while Kona wants drinkers focusing on a "to-don't list" by relaxing or spending time with friends, or getting into "Kona mode," which is “like putting your phone on airplane mode, but for a lot longer period of time.”
The parallels are worth monitoring, especially as CBA explores “exhaustive” options for how to move forward without becoming fully part of the AB InBev family. (ABI already owns 31.3% of the company.)
And here's the part where we talk about IPAs and Hard Seltzers. It's impossible not to.
IRI's craft IPA category showed 11% volume growth in the first half of September compared to last year. That's helped by a lot of big names making big jumps.
Sierra Nevada's Hazy Little Thing has an outside shot at becoming the brewery's #2 IRI brand in 2019, having sold just 725 BBLs fewer than Torpedo Extra IPA through mid-September. When looking at the first two weeks of the month, Hazy Little Thing increased its IRI volume sales by 118% compared to last year, while Torpedo decreased 11.3% and flagship Pale Ale was down 9.6%. From Sept. 1–15, Hazy Little Thing outsold Torpedo by about 1,200 BBLs, perhaps signaling things to come for the rest of the year. It’s one of the most important IPA brands in the market right now, full stop.
It's also worth noting the wild success of SweetWater Brewing Company's 420 Strain G13 IPA, which is the category leader within the new-age style of hemp and cannabis-inspired beers. It sold about as much in IRI stores as New Belgium's Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze IPA to start September, and more than the entire Saranac Brewery portfolio in the same stores.
Don't sleep on AB InBev's Elysian Brewing Company, either, which already has a monster hit with Space Dust IPA, one of the best-sellers in the country for the style. It had +24% growth in the first two weeks of September compared to last year, while sister brand Dayglow IPA is up almost 12% with some very friendly price points. (Spotted at $8.99 for a four-pack of 16oz cans.)
Amidst GBH's recent coverage of how higher-ABV beers are driving a variety of sales, New Belgium's 9% ABV Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA grew about 15% in this timeframe, alongside increases for Terrapin Beer Company's Hopsecutioner IPA (7.3% ABV, 18.7% growth), Founders' Centennial IPA (7.2% ABV, 24% growth), and a year-round rollout of Redhook Brewery's Big Ballard Imperial IPA (8.6% ABV, 139% growth).
There’s plenty to unpack there, while Hard Seltzer’s leading brands White Claw and Truly, which comprise the majority of the category’s sales, offer no less intrigue. Even more so than beer, in recent years, the seasonal drop-off for Hard Seltzer has been drastic, with volume typically nosediving post-Labor Day.
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But not this time around—so far, at least.
Comparing the first two weeks after Labor Day 2018 vs. 2019, White Claw increased volume by almost 4.5 times this year, while Truly grew a little more than 2.5 times. Between Sept. 1–15, White Claw sold the equivalent of 105,000 BBLs of product in IRI-tracked stores (about what Tröegs Brewing Company produced in all of 2018) and Truly moved just over 48,000 BBLs’ worth, similar to last year's output by Jack's Abby Brewing.
Historically, this kind of trend shouldn’t last, and there are already preemptive eulogies about sales declines after the pool-lounging days of summer. Regardless, the category clearly offers plenty of excitement. Eight different brands from White Claw, Truly, and Henry's Hard Sparkling Water broke 10,000 BBLs’ worth of sales in IRI stores through Sept. 15. A ninth from Henry's Hard Sparkling Water (Tropical Variety Pack) was poised to potentially break that threshold by the end of the month.
If we can expect Hard Seltzer’s sales to slip, and the insatiable appetite of IPA lovers to maintain that style’s unstoppable force (as has been the case for years), the coming months also offer an annual return of darker, maltier beers.
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As is tradition, the colder, darker months are bound to foster renewed interest in Porter and Stout. Beer enthusiasts were perhaps a bit premature in decrying the death of Stout last year, and 2019 will give breweries like Left Hand Brewing Company, New Holland Brewing Company, and Founders Brewing Company an opportunity to duke it out for the title of “America’s Stout.”
Until then, enjoy decorative gourd season and the bounty of pumpkin options to usher our way there.
Words by Bryan Roth