As beer drinkers all over celebrate International Stout Day on Nov. 7, there will certainly be plenty of Left Hand Brewing Company’s Milk Stout Nitro or New Holland Brewing’s Dragon's Milk passed around (they vie for the title of “America’s Stout,” after all), alongside classic options like Guinness. Having this “holiday” fall at the start of November is a fitting opportunity: not only do sales of Stout and Porter climb this time of year, but consumer preference for higher ABVs and more intense flavors does, too.
Given the normal seasonal ebb-and-flow of beer purchases, it should be no surprise that fall and winter in the U.S. are prime time for Stouts and Porters. Sales of the two styles grow through the final months of the year, and as the days get darker and colder, data shows a correlation in drinkers’ interest in dark beers.
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There are some unsurprising findings from polls and surveys that support this narrative. Richer flavors grow in popularity in the fall—think pumpkin or cinnamon—while interest in sweet things also picks up. Chocolate may be a winner throughout the year, but at least one set of results shows that its appeal peaks during the winter months.
And there’s good reason for that.
According to a study published in a 2018 edition of Food Quality and Preference, ambient temperatures will impact the kinds of flavors consumers prefer. Results showed that participants expressed “significantly decreased preferences” for sweet and savory foods in warmer temperatures, but would reverse in cooler ones. It built on previous research from 2005 indicating that during the winter, men showed greater interest in sweet or fatty items, while women expressed increased preferences for sugars.
In a less scientific way, this phenomenon also tracks with beer.
Using a collection of top-10, regional/nationally-sold Stouts that show the highest levels of month-to-month sales growth in grocery, convenience, and other chain stores as an example (as tracked by IRI, a market research firm), the average ABV goes up in the final three months of the year. In 2016, it rose from 6.1%-7.6%, then 6.6%-7% in 2017, and 6.5%-7% in 2018. This also fits in with the broad narrative of growing preference for higher-ABV overall, with sales of stronger beer brands showing the best growth for years.
Then there are the beer brands themselves, with several examples of sweeter or more expressive styles being snapped up at higher rates later in the year.
Young's Double Chocolate Stout, for example, shows some of its strongest month-to-month volume growth in December. Its 5.2% ABV is below-average in strength according to American craft beer standards, but its flavor, derived from "real dark chocolate and chocolate essence," connects to interest in sweet foods in the depths of winter. The same goes for Belching Beaver Brewery's Peanut Butter Milk Stout, which, at 5.3%, also gets a boost every December.
That brand represents just over 30% of sales volume annually for the San Diego-based Belching Beaver, but picks up a seasonal boost of around 15% (monthly comparison of sales, not overall sales) toward the end of the year, says Marc Truex, director of sales. That's aided by increased draft placement and extra attention to the brand from its dessert-like spinoffs, which include peanut butter-chocolate and "latte" versions.
"In the winter, the Stouts do take over a little bit and become more popular than other style we have, but I can't say we do a lot of marketing for it," says CEO Tom Vogel. He also notes that higher-ABV beers in Belching Beaver's portfolio perform particularly well this time of year, which gives the company reason to explore that space. As part of San Diego Beer Week, the brewery released Sticky Pawz, a 12.5% "Barrel-Aged Dessert Stout" made with toasted pecans and dulce de leche.
That additional ABV plays for other beers, too. North Coast Brewing Company's Old Rasputin Russian Imperial Stout (9%) and Great Divide Brewing Company’s Yeti Imperial Stout (9.5%) both traditionally show gains in December, with the latter even having its own "National Yeti Awareness Day" at the end of November as a way to celebrate and raise interest in the Stout and its many variants. New Holland's Dragon's Milk and its "Reserve" variants also move more volume closer to the end of the year, as does Fort George Brewery's Cavatica Stout, an 8.8% ABV "strapping American Double Stout with a sweet undertow and addictive hint of roasty goodness."
A rise in ABV can also make it easier for more intense flavors to go down smooth—something pointed out by Sapwood Cellars Brewery's co-founder Michael Tonsmeire in GBH’s analysis of sales related to ABV.. And at a time when variation or intensity of flavor play a bigger role in dictating purchases, the shift in buying behavior in November or December makes sense.
Before all those New Year’s resolutions start and a push toward “better-for-you” beers kicks in, at least.
Words by Bryan Roth