THE GIST
The U.K. government is facing an open revolt from the hospitality industry after imposing a nationwide curfew for restaurants and bars—despite having no evidence it will help curb the country’s second wave of COVID-19 infections.
The new rules enforce a hard closing time of 10 p.m. for on-licenses, meaning restaurants and bars must stop serving alcohol and food before curfew so they can clear the premises. With most pubs licensed to serve alcohol until 11 p.m. before 20 minutes “drinking up time,” that means a loss of at least 80 minutes serving time every night. In addition to that, publicans are restricted to table service only, and asked to ensure customers wear face masks when not seated at their tables.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson says the restrictions are likely to be in place for the next six months; losses in the industry have already caused concern since rules came into effect on Sept. 24. A study of 7,000 venues by industry analyst CGA found that food and beverage sales were down -37% on expected volumes the day after the curfew was put into place, and research from Oxford Economics says 11,000 pubs could close, wiping £7 billion from the economy.
Despite the effect on these businesses, the government has admitted it did not model the policy for its potential impact on either the virus nor the hospitality industry. Instead, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has simply stated that it had been effective in “other countries,” without naming them. It’s possible he is referring to Belgium, where an 11:30 p.m. curfew was put in place, or even South Africa, where curfews included a complete ban on the sale of alcohol.
Coming just days before the amount of furlough support given to businesses was set to fall from 80% to 70%, the policy has been met with fierce criticism from across the beer and hospitality industries, including the Campaign for Real Ale (CAMRA), the Society for Independent Brewers (SIBA), the British Beer and Pub Association, and restaurant advocacy group UKHospitality. They are joined by countless grassroots campaigns, all of which claim the new policy damages businesses and puts lives at risk.
WHY IT MATTERS
In the battle against COVID-19, the hospitality industry appears to be taking a disproportionate amount of friendly fire.
At the time this policy went into effect, pubs had only recently reopened their doors after an enforced lockdown from March to July that resulted in closures and clashes between publicans and their landlords. COVID-19 infection rates remained steady in July and August, only starting to surge as the government encouraged people to go back to work and children to return to school in September. In the week that the curfew came into effect, the U.K. saw its highest-ever daily infection toll of 7,143. However, government data attributed just 2.8% of outbreaks to the pub and restaurant sector—putting it well behind schools (44%), care homes (25%), workplaces (16%), and “other” settings (6%).
Under intense scrutiny from Members of Parliament, Health Secretary Matthew Hancock made a statement in Parliament defending the policy just days after it came into effect. He offered no research data or responses to criticism, but argued that he had to find a way to “strike a balance” between protecting lives and the economy. It is a similar argument to those heard in the U.S., where pubs and bars are being blamed for the spread of the virus while prohibitionists are taking advantage of the situation.
Many in the pub industry, however, claim the new policy protects neither. With CGA’s data showing sales down as much as 47% in London in the week since the curfew, plus wage support for furloughed employees now reduced, this could be the most dangerous point for pubs and their employees since the pandemic began.
The hospitality industry is the third-biggest employer in the country after retail and healthcare, which means up to 1 million jobs are at risk either through cutbacks or business failures.
Jim Harrison runs the historic Dolphin pub in Derby, and before lockdown was negotiating to go free of tie from the site’s owner, Ei Group. Going free of tie can reduce rents and beer pricing, as well as allowing the landlord to buy from any supplier they choose. That move, however, has been delayed to next year by COVID-19, and Harrison fears his business won’t survive that long now the curfew is in place.
His takings in July were -50% down year-on-year, but since the curfew began they have dropped further to -70%. For Harrison, closing early isn’t the only explanation: he says the restrictions have sucked the “joy” out of going to the pub, as well as the confidence among drinkers that it is safe.
“It’s been horrendous,” he says. “I’m taking less than I was 35 years ago when I started in the trade. Counting money in the till takes 30 seconds because there’s nothing in it.”
Harrison adds that he is still being invoiced full rent by Ei, and while they aren’t chasing payments, he is racking up debts while seeing his income fall. His experience is far from unique, with hundreds of tied publicans in the same position. Chancellor Rishi Sunak has introduced a new scheme to pay one-third of the unworked hours for employees still not needed full-time, but this is irrelevant if hundreds of pubs and restaurants go out of business.
UKHospitality warned that one in four businesses could still fail without rent or greater wage support. The imposition of table service on pubs means more staff will be needed, increasing costs for bars and restaurants while actual sales go down. This has caused some pubs to raise their prices, while a group of Manchester licensees have come together under the hashtag #cancelthecurfew and banned Members of Parliament from entering their premises, saying: “You won’t serve us, so we won’t serve you.”
Whether any MP dares to set foot in a pub or restaurant right now is another question, but they also won’t be welcome at many breweries, either. The curfew immediately hit brewers hard. Some say they saw a drop in orders before the rules actually came into effect. Darron Anley, founder of Siren Craft Brew, says his brewery lost about 40% of deliveries as publicans canceled orders.
“What had been building in terms of confidence in orders has been shattered,” he says.
Anley says that local business has started to pick up again as pubs work out their new ordering levels, but deliveries into metropolitan areas are still around 50% of what they’d normally be. He added that he didn’t understand why hospitality was being targeted, given how little it has contributed to the rising number of COVID-19 outbreaks. He tells GBH he feels it must be because “hospitality is an easy target,” and the new actions make it look like the government is intervening.
It was only a month ago that the government was encouraging people to go to licensed premises with its “Eat Out to Help Out” scheme, and Johnson said it was the public’s “patriotic duty” to head to the pub. The U-turn to scapegoating the industry has been dramatic, and means both pubs and breweries are now struggling to shift keg stock they only acquired due to the government’s policies during July and August.
Small breweries are also still furious at the government’s decision to raise alcohol duty for many breweries below 5,000 hectoliters (4,260 barrels), and are adapting their business plans for the next two years to take into account the lost profits. SIBA Chief Executive James Calder said small breweries were at breaking point and that “without urgent support many will not survive the vital Christmas period.”
Many in the industry also believe that the government’s policy isn’t just risking livelihoods—it’s putting lives at risk as well. There are already many reports of overcrowding on public transport as every pub in the country kicks its customers out at 10 p.m., as well as crushes in supermarkets as revelers grab beer to continue drinking at home.
Sacha Lord, night-time economy adviser for Greater Manchester, tweeted: "This ill-thought-out 10pm curfew has pushed everyone out of venues with socially distanced measures, into the streets, into off-licences, supermarkets, overcrowded public transport and house parties.”
One of the biggest challenges in fighting the spread of COVID-19 has been how long it takes for symptoms to show and measures to be proven effective. This means that, without data modeling, the industry will not know whether its sacrifice has helped or worsened the crisis until it is too late. All it can do for now is count the financial costs.
Words by Jonny Garrett